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» The Business Confidence Index rises 2 points In the Third Quarter of 2019

Chonburi, December 12th, 2019

12th December 2019, Siam Ratings Agency Company Limited (SRAL) announced the result of the survey about WVB Business Confidence Index in the third quarter of 2019.

SRAL Co., Ltd. conducts the survey quarterly. The main objects of the survey are companies which have the most well- known brand, the largest number of Total Assets, Total Revenues and Employees. Being performed from the middle of October 2019 to the late in November 2019, the survey attracted 150 Companies which active in many different fields in Thailand, such as Agriculture, Automotive, Construction, Technology, Energy, Electronics, Telecommunications, Services… In particular, large and small enterprises accounted for over 90% of total enterprises participating in this quarter.

According to the survey, the Business Confidence Index (BCI) in the third quarter of 2019 reached 129 points, increased by 2 points compared to the second quarter of 2019 (127 points), This shows that companies in Thailand have a positive perspective on the current economy. Most companies say that it is difficult to predict. Besides, many enterprises still have a positive attitude about economic growth.

Summary of investigation results of 6 components building Business Confidence Index (BCI) in the third quarter of 2019 as follows:

- On the general economic situation of Thailand today:
25.33% of surveyed enterprise claimed that the general economy of Thailand is now better than 12 months ago, 60.00% said that economic conditions in Thailand remain and 14.67% of businesses think that economic conditions in overall are worse than 12 months ago.

According to the National Economic and Social Development Council of Thailand (NESDC), The Thai economy in the third quarter of 2019 expanded by 2.4 percent (%YoY), continuing from 2.3 percent in the previous quarter. After seasonally adjusted, the economy grew by 0.1 percent from the second quarter (%QoQ sa). In the first 9 months of 2019, the Thai economy expanded by 2.5 percent.

On the expenditure side, the economy was driven mainly by an expansion of private consumption, as well as an accelerated private investment, and government expenditure while export volume declined following the global slowdown and the trade protection impacts.

On the production side, the agriculture sector returned to show an expansion while the accommodation and food service sector accelerated and the transportation and storage sector continued expanding. Nevertheless, the wholesale and retail trade sector together with the construction and the electricity and gas sector softened while the manufacturing continued to decline.

- Prediction of Thailand general economic situation in the next 12 months:

 76.00% of enterprises believed that Thailand’s economy would be better in the next 12 months, 23.33% said that the economy would remain unchanged, and 0.67% of businesses are worried about Thailand’s economy in the future.

According to the National Economic and Social Development Council of Thailand (NESDC), The Thai economy in 2019 is estimated to grow by 2.6 percent. It is expected that export value will decline by 2.0 percent, while private consumption and total investment tend to expand by 4.3 and 2.7 percent respectively. Headline inflation will be 0.8 percent and the current account is likely to register a surplus of 6.2 percent of GDP.

Financial Conditions: The policy rate decreased to 1.50 percent per annum throughout the third quarter. On the 7th August 2019, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to lower the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.50 percent per annum to support the lower than expected economic growth and headline inflation was projected to be below inflation target boundary. Similarly, the Federal Reserve (Fed) decreased its policy rate to the range of 2.00-2.25 and 1.75-2.00 percent per annum in August and September, respectively. In addition, many countries gave the signal to ease their monetary policies while some countries decided to lower its policy rate in this quarter. For example Reserve Bank of Indonesia reduced policy rate by 25 basis points for three consecutive months in July, August and September from 6.00 to 5.25 percent per annum and Reserve Bank of South Korea decreased their policy rates by 25 basis points from 1.75 to 1.50 percent per annum in July. Similarly, India, New Zealand, Australia, Russia and the Philippines also lowered their central bank policy rate in this quarter.

- Plans to use employees:

In the survey: 50.67% of enterprises expected to raise human resources; 44.00% of enterprises planned to remain and 5.33% enterprises will reduce the number of employees in the future.

According to (NESDC), Employment dropped in line with a decline in both of agricultural employment and non-agricultural employment. In the third quarter of 2019, employment declined by 2.1 percent, compared with a decrease of 0.3 percent in the previous quarter. This was mainly due to a contraction of 1.8 percent in agricultural employment, declining for three consecutive quarters, in line with the reduction of major crops such as paddy and maize.

Besides, non-agricultural employment decreased in the first time of five consecutive quarters by 2.3 percent, following the contraction of employment in manufacturing and construction sector and wholesale, retail sales, and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycle sector. However, employment in accommodation and food service activities sector expanded.

The unemployment rate stood at 1.1 percent, compared with a 1.0 percent rate in the same period last year. The average-unemployed was 400,933 persons, compared with an unemployed at 373,500 persons in the same period last year.

- Investment plans for fixed assets:

48.67% of surveyed businesses planned to invest more costs for fixed assets, 47.33% of these still have no plan and 4.00% planned to reduce the cost for fixed assets in the next 12 months.

- The belief in revenue growth:

84.67% of participating enterprises were confident of an increase in sales, 14.67% of businesses said that the revenue would remain and 0.67% business is  concerned about the number of sales going down in the next 12 months.

- The belief in profit growth:

82.67% of enterprises believed that profit would rise in the following year, 16.00% of businesses believed that profit would remain and 1.33% business is concerned about the number of profit going down in the next 12 months.

Thai Economic Outlook for 2019: The Thai Economy in 2019 is projected to grow by 2.6 percent, decelerating from 4.1 percent in the previous year. Headline inflation is expected to be at 0.8 percent, and the current account balance is forecasted to register a surplus of 6.2 percent of GDP, compared with a surplus of 5.6 percent in 2018.

In the press release dated on November 18th, 2019, NESDC forecasted that the Thai economy is likely to expand by 2.6 percent, which is close to the lower bound of the previous projection of 2.7 – 3.2 percent. (August 19th, 2019) This revision included some key revisions on key growth components to be consistent with the actual data of the first three quarters of 2019 and some change in key assumptions of the projection.

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Siam Ratings Agency Company Limited.
78/11-12 Moo 5, Sub-District Angsila,
District Meuang Chonburi 20000, Thailand.

Website: http://www.siamcr.com
Tel: (+66) 38 397 457.