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» Business Confidence Index decreased 21 points in Quarter II, 2011

Hanoi, 18th July 2011. Today, Vietnam WVB Financial Intelligence Services (WVB Vietnam))jointly announced Business Confidence Index (BCI) for Quarter II, 2011.

This survey is jointly conducted quarterly by the two companies WVB Vietnam. The survey participants are the country’s leading enterprises regarding branding, total assets, total revenue, and a number of employees across various industries in Vietnam. This survey extended from 18th May 2011 to the first week of July 2011 attracted the participation of 127 companies across 11 primary sectors and industries of Vietnam. Over 78% of the survey participants selected also is Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) as representatives of Vietnamese SMEs.

According to this survey results, the business confidence index (BCI) in this Quarter II, 2011 represents a 21 points decrease over the Fist Quarter of 2011, which decrease a 12 point compared to the first index score in the Third Quarter of 2008.

The index in this second Quarter of 2011 decreased 21 points in comparison with the last quarter (Fist Quarter of 2011). It is the strongest decline since the Business Confidence Index Survey was conducted and the second the index kept going down.

Here are some key results for the 06 subcomponents of the WVB Business Confidence Index in Quarter II of 2011:

• Current economic conditions: 38% thinks the overall economic conditions has improved in comparison with last year; 12% said that current economy conditions have become weak. 50% said that current economy conditions remained

• Economic outlook: 53% of companies interviewed said that the economic situation in Vietnam would be better within the next 12 months, rising to 1.5% compared to first quarter of 2011; 10% said that the domestic economy will take turns in a clockwise direction is worse than the previous 12 months, down 8.2% compared to QIV_2010 and 37% of enterprises that the domestic economy will not change. Pessimistic viewpoint which lasted from the 4th quarter of 2010 so far influenced the projections of the economic situation in Vietnam the next 12 months of the business

he result of the economic situation in Vietnam have shown that the confidence of businesses with regard to the current economy, and in subsequent years continued momentum reductions. The powerful of the two components on the factor of greatest impact to the belief of making only number plummeted to 21 points.

• Expected change in employment: only 44% of companies interviewed said they are planning to increase the number of its employees; 50% said it would keep and 6% said it would reduce the number of employees over the next 12 months. Compared to the results of BCI quarter of 2011, the group plans to cut staff have raised them 0.31%.
• Planned fix investment: 33% of companies interviewed said they would raise the cost of investment in fixed assets of the company over the next 12 months – rising respectively-06.75% in comparison with QI_2011; 48% of companies said it would retain and 19% of companies said it would reduce the cost of investment to fixed assets of the company-growth 14.2% respectively as compared with QI_2011..

            This is the second consecutive quarter, businesses participated in the survey expressed psychologically distinct concerns as regards the economic situation in the country. The particulars inexpensively produced through plans to cut workers, collapse the structure and reduce the investment continued the business as one of the strategies for economic growth at present.

• Expected revenue growth20% of the businesses interviewed said that sales of its business is expected to increase over the past 12 months; 72% of businesses that the turnover of enterprises unchanged and 7% of remaining businesses for revenue of the business will diminish. This is a decrease in strength considerably embarrassed when only 20% of COMPANIES interviewed believed that their sales will increase, decrease 47.87% compared to Q1/2011 while the proportion of pessimistic increased 2.2% in comparison with QI/2011. This is the third factor has decreased significant strengths, contributing to putting confidence index is down four points compared to the previous quarter.
• Expected profit growth: 41% of the businesses interviewed for that corporate profits will increase in the next 12 months; 50% of businesses that profits will remain at 7% said that the profitability of their business will decline within the next 12 months. Compared to the results of BCI quarter of 2011, the number of businesses related to optimism about prospects for profit – 22.96%; Most businesses have cautiously raised 35.59% and the number of businesses have pessimistic about prospects for revenue increases 2.9%.

Vietnam's economy Q!/2011 with several variables such as exchange rate USD continually adjusted prices compared with USD, the price of inputs is continuously rising was influenced and dramatic impact to the point of orientation for the development of the business.
In the first quarter survey in 2011, teams of WVB FISL survey also examines the opinions of the business to the impact of the hot economic issues to the business confidence of enterprises in the second quarter in 2011. It is the employee's salary should increase to offset the inflation of the Vietnam dong or khong.Ngan every state should do to prevent implicit interest rate race among commercial banks, and the inflation report last 6 months. Quiet movements of the stock market now affect and influence how the business is also the question was more interested in this quarter..

Results of the survey showed that 51% of businesses: that depends on the situation of operations of the business to have more wage increases for workers compensation in slipping of the Philippines or not. The State should adopt both interest rates and interest rates raised to stop the vegetarian cycling interest implicitly among commercial banks is the opinion of 77% of businesses were interviewed.In addition, 50% of enterprises are asked to that deposition of the stock market today does not affect business results of the business. Inflation last year stood at 15%-17% in the opinion of most businesses.
The survey of business confidence index in 2011 closed the quarter with less optimistic results. In general, the index continued to fall 21 points and is the 3rd consecutive 4 quarters with the largest declines, is that psychological concerns and caution of the business before the economic changes current domestic.

Survey Result
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score - QII/2011:         88
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score - QI/2011:         109
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score - QIV/2010:      126
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score - QIII/2010:      137
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score - QII/2010:       134
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score - QI/2010:         138
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score - QIV/2009:      135
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score - QIII/2009:      136
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score - QII/2009:        130
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score - QI/2009:           99
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score - QIV/2008:        93
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score - QII/2008:        100

Component Score

Respondent breakdown by Sector/Industry

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Ms. Dao Phuong Thao
WVB FISL

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