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» Business Confidence Index decreased 11 points in Quarter IV, 2010

Hanoi, 11th January 2011. Today, Vietnam WVB Financial Intelligence Services (WVB Vietnam) with PetroVietnam Finance Investment and Consultancy Company (PVFC Invest) jointly announced the WVB-PVFC Invest Business Confidence Index (BCI) for Quarter IV, 2010.

This survey is jointly conducted quarterly by the two companies WVB Vietnam and PVFC Invest. The survey participants are the country’s leading enterprises regarding branding, total assets, total revenue, and number of employees across various industries in Vietnam. This survey extended from 15th December 2010 to the first week in January 2011 attracted the participation of 233 companies across 11 primary sectors and industries of Vietnam. Over 75% of survey participants selected also is Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) as representatives of Vietnamese SMEs.

According to this survey results, the business confidence index (BCI) in this Quarter of 2010 represents a 11 points decrease over the Third Quarter of 2010, which also demonstrates a 26 point rise compared to the first index score in the Third Quarter of 2008.

The index in this Quarter of 2010 decreased 11 points as compared with the last quarter (Third Quarter of 2010). It was the biggest decline since the Business Confidence Index Survey was conducted.  

Here are some key results for the 06 subcomponents of the WVB-PVFC Business Confidence Index in Quarter IV of 2010:

• Current economic conditions: 48.93% think the overall economic conditions have improved compared to one year ago, which decrease -21.3% compared to the Third Quarter of 2010; 37.35% said that current economy conditions remained the same and only 13.72% said that current economy conditions have become weak, which increase 9.53% over the last quarter.

• Economic outlook: 75.97% expect the overall economic conditions will be better over the next twelve months, corresponding -8.38% decrease from the last quarter; 20.6% think that the overall economic conditions will be the same and 3.43% is worried about a dismal economy over the upcoming year.

• Expected change in employment: Up to 45.92% of business expected to increase the total number of employees, which decrease -13.24% compared to Q3_2010; 5.58% think they will cut the workforce in their companies and 48.50% think their company employees will remain the same over the next twelve months, which increase 2.53% over the last quarter.

• Planned fix investment: 51.07 % think they will continue to invest more, which decrease -8.09% compared to Q3_2010; 45.06% think they will keep the same investment in fixed assets over the next 12 months and 3.87% think they will reduce investment in fixed assets over next 12 months, corresponding -2.62% decrease from the last quarter.

• Expected revenue growth: 68.24% are confident their company’s sales revenues will increase over the next 12 months, which decrease -5.81% compared to the last quarter; 27.90% think their company’s sales will keep the same and only 3.86% of enterprises are worried about the decline of their revenues in 12 months, 1.95% increase respectively over the Q3_2010.

• Expected profit growth: 65.67% of businesses believe their profits will increase in coming years, corresponding -6.85% decrease from the last quarter. 30.47% of enterprises say that their profits will remain and 3.86% of enterprises are worried about the decline of their profits in 12 months.

The team survey WVB Vietnam and PVFC Invest also investigate the opinions of the enterprises on the significant issues their companies are facing in Vietnam such as impacts of domestic credit market and the major factors create changes in business confidence for business owners. The central bank’s monetary policy tightening to control inflation by increasing the base rate to 9% from November 2010; Consumer price index (CPI) in 2010; What’s a factor which could limit the ability of manufacturing enterprises; Vietnamese’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2010 will increase or decrease compared to 2009 .

The team survey WVB Vietnam and PVFC Invest also also find out the opinions of businesses for the impact of the hot economic issues to the business confidence of enterprises in this quarter, namely: The survey results showed that 94.85% of enterprises said that increasing the basic interest rate up to 9% - one of the measures to implement tight monetary policies to control inflation in short term and medium term. Over 69% of businesses said that the consumer price index in 2010 will be above 10%. There are over 41% think that the money markets may be affected by the resonance of factors as the gold market, stock market, tightening monetary policy and inflation 2010. Nearly 20% said that unanticipated changes in the gold market is the factor of greatest impact. Especially, 69.10% believe Vietnam’s inflation rate in 2010 will be at double-digit threshold, and 60% said that this is a great influence to the decisions of their business strategy in 2011. Otherwise, factors such as purchase orders, financial and input costs as well as human resources are still issues that worry business for production and business activities of enterprises in the country today.

Survey Result

WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score - QIV/2010:      126
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score - QIII/2010:      137
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score - QII/2010:       134
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score - QI/2010:         138
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score - QIV/2009:      135
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score - QIII/2009:      136
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score - QII/2009:        130
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score - QI/2009:           99
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score - QIV/2008:        93
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score - QII/2008:       100

Component Score

Respondent breakdown by Sector/Industry

About World Vest Base:
Established in 1985 in Chicago, USA, World'Vest Base (WVB) has becomes the world’s leading global provider of financial fundamentals serving the research and analytic needs of thousands of top companies in the financial services, media and corporate markets. The WVB global database is the financial industry’s premier source of detailed and transparent financial statement data on public companies. The database universe spans over 50,000 public companies over 130 countries from Asia, Africa, Australia, Europe, Latin America and North America. WVB Regional databases also cover hundreds of thousands of private companies in Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Malaysia and Egypt. WVB also provides databases with Insider & Major Shareholders Transactions, specialized End-of-Day pricing for emerging markets and worldwide credit risk and business risk scoring.
Further information can be reached at the company’s official website: http://www.wvb.com

About PVFC Invest
PetroVietnam Finance Investment and Consultancy Company (PVFC Invest) is the subsidiary of PetroVietnam Finance Company (PVFC). Our main investment priority fields are oil and gas industry, energy, high-end tourism, real – estate, manufacturing... Besides, PVFC Invest’s professional consulting services includes: financial advisory, investment advisory, merge and acquisition. PVFC Invest is proud of 100 employees who obtain in-depth experience, full-understanding about financial market and management from working for domestic and international financial organizations or graduated from privilege universities in Viet Nam and abroad. At present, The Company has more than 500 customers spreading all over the country.
For further information, please visit website: http://www.pvfcinvest.vn