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» Business Confidence Index increased 31 points in Quarter II, 2009
Hanoi, 13 July 2009: Today, Vietnam World Vest Base Financial Intelligence Services (WVB FISL) with Petro Vietnam Finance Investment and Consultancy Company (PVFC Invest) jointly announced the WVB-PVFC Invest business confidence index (BCI) for quarter II, 2009.
WVB FISL and PVFC Invest have carried out these surveys on a quarterly basis. The survey participants are the country’s leading enterprises regarding branding, total assets, total revenue, and number of employees across various industries in Vietnam.
This time the survey lasted from 11 June to the first week of July 2009 with the participation of 192 companies across 11 primary sectors and industries of Vietnam. Half of survey participants selected also is Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) as representatives of Vietnamese SMEs.
According to the survey result, the BCI is 130 points which represent a 31 point increase compared to last quarter result and a 30 point increase compared to the index base in the first survey in quarter III last year (2008). Based on such index result, most of CEOs, managing directors and business managers are expressing their great confidence in their companies’ revenues and profits over the next 12 months. Their confidence signals a recovery and a positive growth of Vietnam’s economy in the near future.
Here are some key results for the 06 subcomponents of the WVB-PVFC Index QII, 2009:
- Regarding current economic conditions of Vietnam: 53% survey participants think the overall economic conditions have been improved compared to 12 months ago. Last quarter, only 22% think the same.
- Regarding economic outlook: 75% believe the overall economic conditions will be better over the next twelve months, increase from 51% in the last quarter. Only about 7% see a worse economic outlook for Vietnam over the upcoming year, a 6% down compared to last quarter.
- Regarding employment change: 59% expect their employment to increase in the next 12 months, compared with 32% in the quarter I this year. Only 7% are worried that they will have to cut their workforce. Last quarter survey, nearly 17% planned to decrease their employment.
- Regarding planned fix investment: 34% see no change with their planned investment into fixed assets (nearly the same percentage last quarter) but there are 60% who think their companies will invest more over the next 12 months. Last quarter, only about 46% planned to increase total fixed investment expenditures.
- Regarding expected revenue growth: 81% give higher projection of sales which indicate a 31% increase compared with last quarter when 50% expected their revenue growth. Only 4% think their sales will be decreased, down from 14% in the last quarter
- Regarding expected profit growth, 72% think their profits will increase over the next 12 months, increase from 45% in the last quarter. Meanwhile, 7% expect their profits to decline.
In this quarter, topical questions are also asked to find CEOs and business manager’s opinion on the significant issues their companies are facing in Vietnam such as inflation, exchange rate and interest rate. All respondents also trust the government’s key measures to boost consumer demand including reduction of interest rate on consumer and corporate loans, wide dissemination of information about consumer demand stimulus policies. Meanwhile, Interviewees also show their expected interest rate on consumer loan from banks that can help to stimulate domestic consumer demand. Most of them (51%) think the rate should be between 5% and 8% and 16% think it should be lower than 5%.
48% respondents are worried about the depreciation of VND against USD and forecast VND/USD rate will be over 18,000VND/USD by the end of 2009. 43% think the VND/USD rate will be within the range from 17,500 VND to 18,000 VND/USD. Only 3% think of the depreciation of USD against VND and the VND/USD rate will be lower than 17,000 VND/USD at the end of this year.
When asked to forecast about the inflation rate over the next 12 months, 42% think the inflation rate will be between 5% and 10%. 30% think the rate will be between 10% and 15%. Only 9% respondents think the rate will fall below 5% while 6% think of a range from 15% to 20% for the inflation rate.
Survey Result
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score- QII/2009: 130
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score- QI/2009: 99
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score- QIV/2008: 93
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score- QIII/2008: 100
No, |
Component Name |
Component Score (percent) |
1 |
Current economic conditions |
129.69 |
2 |
Economic outlook |
167.71 |
3 |
Expected change in employment |
152.08 |
4 |
Planned fix investment |
153.85 |
5 |
Expected revenue growth |
177.08 |
6 |
Expected profit growth |
165.63 |
Respondent breakdown by Sector/Industry Respondent breakdown by Ownership
Sector/Industry |
Percentage |
|
Ownership |
Percentage |
Transport, shipping, Automobiles & Parts |
6.77% |
|
100% foreign owned |
10.94% |
Agri-forestry, Fisheries. Food & Beverages |
5.21% |
|
Joint stock |
51.04% |
Real Estates, Construction & materials |
22.40% |
|
Joint venture |
3.65% |
Financial services, Bank, Insurance |
14.16% |
|
Limited liabilities |
13.02% |
Cosmetics, Chemicals, |
5.73% |
|
Private owned |
8.33% |
Textile, footwear |
2.60% |
|
State-owned |
13.02% |
Electronics, Electrical Equipment |
2.08% |
|
Total |
100.00% |
Industrial equipment, Computer & Software Services, telecommunication |
12.50% |
|
|
|
Oil & Gas |
5.21% |
|
|
|
Health care and education/training |
3.65% |
|
|
|
Trade, Tourism , Consumer services |
19.79% |
|
|
|
Total |
100.00 % |
|
|
|
About World Vest Base:
Established in 1985 in Chicago, USA, World'Vest Base (WVB) has becomes the world’s leading global provider of financial fundamentals serving the research and analytic needs of thousands of top companies in the financial services, media and corporate markets. The WVB global database is the financial industry’s premier source of detailed and transparent financial statement data on public companies. The database universe spans over 50,000 public companies over 130 countries from Asia, Africa, Australia, Europe, Latin America and North America. WVB Regional databases also cover hundreds of thousands of private companies in Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Malaysia and Egypt. WVB also provides databases with Insider & Major Shareholders Transactions, specialized End-of-Day pricing for emerging markets and worldwide credit risk and business risk scoring.
Further information can be reached at the company’s official website: http://www.wvb.com
About PVFC Invest
PetroVietnam Finance Investment and Consultancy Company (PVFC Invest) is the subsidiary of PetroVietnam Finance Company (PVFC). Our main investment priority fields are oil and gas industry, energy, high-end tourism, real – estate, manufacturing... Besides, PVFC Invest’s professional consulting services includes: financial advisory, investment advisory, merge and acquisition. PVFC Invest is proud of 100 employees who obtain in-depth experience, full-understanding about financial market and management from working for domestic and international financial organizations or graduated from privilege universities in Viet Nam and abroad. At present, the Company has more than 500 customers spreading all over the country.
For further information, please visit website: http://www.pvfcinvest.com.vn
For media enquiries:
Mr. Dam Hoang Giang
WVB FISL
+84 (4) 3 762 4811
For media enquiries:
Mr. Do Nguyen Hong Linh
PVFC Invest
+ 84 (4) 39726 126