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» The Business Confidence Index slightly increased 3 point in the Third Quarter of 2024.

1st November 2024, Siam Ratings Agency Company Limited (SRA) announced the result of the survey about WVB Business Confidence Index in the Third quarter of 2024.

SRA Co., Ltd. conducts the survey quarterly. The main objects of the survey are companies which have the most well-known brand, the largest number of Total Assets, Total Revenues, and Employees. Being performed from the early of October 2024 to the late of October 2024, the survey attracted 150 Companies which active in many different fields in Thailand, such as Agriculture, Automotive, Construction, Technology, Energy, Electronics, Telecommunications, Services… In particular, large and medium enterprises accounted for over 95% of total enterprises participating in this quarter.

According to the survey, the Business Confidence Index (BCI) in the Third quarter of 2024 reached 129 points, a slight increased of 3 points compared to the Second quarter of 2024 (126 points). This index indicates that companies in Thailand have a positive perspective on the current economic situation. However, despite this sentiment, most companies express confidence that the Thai economy will improve in the upcoming phase. Furthermore, there are several enterprise that believe the current economy is highly volatile and challenging to predict due to the fluctuations in the global economy.

Summary of investigation results of 6 components building Business Confidence Index (BCI) in the Third quarter of 2024 as follows:

- On the general economic situation of Thailand today:
Only 47.33% of enterprises participating in the survey said that Thailand's overall economy is now better than 12 months ago, 48.00% of enterprises said that the economic conditions of Thailand remained the same. 4.67% of enterprises said that economic conditions were somewhat worse than 12 months ago.

According to the Shareholder Newsletter from Kasikorn Research Center (KResearch), Thailand’s Economic Growth is Projected to Accelerate during the Second Half of 2024, Attributable Partly to the Low Base of 2023 Amid Elevated Internal and External Downside Risks.

The world’s leading economies show signs of slowing down; close attention
must be paid to the US presidential election in late 2024.

The US economy grew better than expected in the second quarter of 2024, with an annualized QoQ growth of 2.8 percent. However, signs of a slowdown have emerged in the labor market and consumer spending with the personal savings rate also declining amid higher borrowing costs. As a result, positive views towards the overall US economic performance have begun to diminish. Meanwhile, the continuing decline in US inflation has led markets to anticipate that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may lower interest rates for the first time in September 2024, with the possibility of three additional rate cuts by the end of the year, which would contribute to the weakening of the US dollar.

1. Prediction of Thailand general economic situation in the next 12 months:

 55.33% of enterprises believed that Thailand’s economy would be better in the next 12 months, 44.67% said that the economy would remain unchanged, and 0.00% of businesses are worried about Thailand’s economy in the future.

According to the Shareholder Newsletter from Kasikorn Research Center (KResearch), The Thai economy is expected to experience accelerated growth in the second half of 2024, supported by thriving tourism and exports amid external risks while close attention must be paid to government economic stimulus measures.

The Thai economy grew by 2.3 percent YoY, and by 0.8 percent QoQ. The growth was supported by a wider trade surplus, thanks to stronger-than-expected export growth and favorable private consumption, albeit slower than that reported in the previous quarter. As a result, the Thai economy expanded by 1.9 percent YoY during the first half of 2024.

Meanwhile, public spending was lower than expected in the second quarter of 2024. Particularly, public investment continued to contract despite accelerated budgetary disbursements as compared to the previous quarter. Moreover, public consumption grew at a slower rate than previously anticipated, creating uncertainty about the economic outlook for the second half of the year. Additionally, private investment contracted at a steeper pace than expected, particularly in the construction and automotive sectors, as reflected in disappointing sales of commercial vehicles, including pickup trucks and freight trucks. Given this, the overall investment may grow slower than prior estimates in 2024.

However, if the government stimulus measures are delayed and no alternative measures are introduced in the fourth quarter of 2024, and if the enactment of the 2025
budget is delayed by more than one month, Thailand’s economic outlook for 2024 will face increased downside risks, with a lower bound estimate of 2.2 percent. Thus far,
the likelihood of this scenario remains low.

In summary, KResearch maintains its growth forecast for the Thai economy at 2.6 percent in 2024, based on the assumptions that the government will drive economic stimulus policies in the fourth quarter of 2024, and the 2025 budget bill will be enacted by October 1, 2024. Tourism and exports are expected to remain the key economic drivers in the latter half of the year.

1. Plans to use employees:

In the survey: 52.00% of enterprises expected to raise human resources; 44.67% of enterprises planned to remain and 3.33% of enterprises will reduce the number of employees in the future.

According to The National Economic and Social Development Council of Thailand (NESDC), Employment declined for the second consecutive quarter, following a decline in agricultural employment. Meanwhile, non-agricultural employment continued to increase for the ninth consecutive quarter.

The unemployment rate was higher than the previous quarter and higher than the same quarter last year. In the second quarter of 2024, there were 39.50 million employed persons in total, a 0.4-percent decrease compared to a 0.1-percent decrease in the previous quarter. This total included 36.17 million Thai employed persons (91.56 percent share), a decrease of 2.6 percent compared to a 1.6-percent decrease in the previous quarter, and 3.33 million foreign employed persons (8.44 percent share), an increase of 21.1 percent compared to a 20.8-percent increase in the previous quarter. Agricultural employment (27.97 percent of total employment) continued to decline for the second consecutive quarter by 5.0 percent, in line with decreased agricultural production, especially in paddy, fruits, cassava, and rubber. Non-agricultural employment (72.03 percent of total employment) continued to increase for the ninth consecutive quarter by 1.5 percent. This increase was mainly driven by higher employment in manufacturing, accommodation and food service activities, and construction. Furthermore, employment in wholesale and retail trade, and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles rebounded.

The unemployment rate in this quarter stood at 1.07 percent, higher than the 1.01 percent in the previous quarter and the 1.06 percent in the same quarter last year. The average number of unemployed people was 429,081 higher than the 407,690 unemployed in the previous quarter and close to the 429,050 unemployed in the same quarter last year.

1. Investment plans for fixed assets:

58.67% of surveyed businesses planned to invest more costs for fixed assets, 40.00% of these still have no plan and 1.33% planned to reduce the cost for fixed assets in the next 12 months.

1. The belief in revenue growth:

          69.33% of participating enterprises were confident of an increase in sales, 30.00% of enterprises said that the revenue would remain and 0.67% business is concerned about the number of sales going down in the next 12 months.
- The belief in profit growth:
69.33% of enterprises believed that profit would rise in the following year, 30.00% of enterprises believed that profit would remain and 0.67% business is concerned about the number of Profit going down in the next 12 months.

According to The National Economic and Social Development Council of Thailand (NESDC), The Thai Economic Outlook 2024.

The Thai economy in 2024 is anticipated to recover gradually, primarily driven by the revival of the tourism and related service sectors, robust private consumption, increased public spending and heightened investment during the second of FY2024 and a favorable expansion of exports in line with the global trade recovery. However, the economic recovery faces several significant risks and limitations, which may result in slower than baseline forecast, including elevated levels of household and business debts, risks posed by climate variability and increased volatility in the global economy and financial system.

Supporting factors for the economic growth:

The continual recovery of the tourism sector which is in line with the expected increase in the number of foreign tourists to return to business-as-usual levels, as reflected by the number of foreign tourists in the first 7 months of 2024, totaling 20.6 million, an increase of 33.8 percent from the same period last year. The number of tourists from most countries of origin almost reaches the pre-pandemic levels32, coupled with a similar upward trend in foreign tourist spending. In the second quarter, per capita expenditure averaged 40,853 baht, increased from an average of 39,625 baht in the first quarter. The number of foreign tourists and tourism revenue are expected to continue rising in the second half of the year, with a significant boost anticipated in the last quarter, which marks the high season. Key supporting factors include the increase in flights availability33, the recovery of global travel, and the government's ongoing measures to attract foreign tourists. These measures include visa exemptions for tourists from numerous countries34, particularly the introduction of permanent visa exemption for Chinese tourists effective from March 1st, 202435, as well as the Visa on Arrival measures36, which offers additional privileges to tourists from various countries, including India and Taiwan.

The strong expansion of domestic consumption, particularly in services and non-durable goods, aligns with the ongoing recovery of the tourism sector. This expansion is further supported by the sustained elevation of the Consumer Confidence Index, which reached 57.7 in July, compared to 55.6 during the same period of the previous year, marking the 19th consecutive month that the index has remained above 50.0.

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Established in 1985 in Chicago, USA, World' Vest Base (WVB) has become the world’s leading global provider of financial fundamentals serving the research and analytic needs of thousands of top companies in the financial services, media and corporate markets. The WVB global database is the financial industry’s premier source of detailed and transparent financial statement data on public companies. The database universe spans over 50,000 public companies over 130 countries from Asia, Africa, Australia, Europe, Latin America and North America. WVB Regional databases also cover hundreds of thousands of private companies in Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Malaysia and Egypt. WVB also provides databases with Insider & Major Shareholders Transactions, specialized End-of-Day pricing for emerging markets and worldwide credit risk and business risk scoring

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