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» Business Confidence Index down 01 point in the quarter IV of 2009

Business Confidence Index down 01 point in the quarter IV of  2009

Hanoi, 8 January 2009. Today, Vietnam WVB Financial Intelligence Services (WVB VietNam) with PetroVietnam Finance Investment and Consultancy Company (PVFC Invest) jointly announced the WVB-PVFC Invest business confidence index (BCI) for quarter IV, 2009.

This survey is jointly conducted quarterly by the two companies WVB Vietnam and PVFC Invest. The survey participants are the country’s leading enterprises regarding branding, total assets, total revenue, and number of employees across various industries in Vietnam. This survey extended from 15 December  2009 to the first week in January 2010 attracted the participation of 146 companies across 11 primary sectors and industries of Vietnam. Half of survey participants selected also is Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) as representatives of Vietnamese SMEs.

According to this survey results, the business confidence index (BCI) in the fourth  quarter this year fell 1 point over the previous the quarter, which also demonstrates a 35 point rise compared to the first index score in the third quarter of 2008.

The index in this four quarter lost only 1 point  as compared with the last quarter this year
but this is the second decline since  the first survey in third quarter of 2008. This result reflects  that the perspective and psychology of business owners and managers have been impacted by changes in the international and domestic economic situation .

Here are some key results for the 06 subcomponents of the WVB-PVFC Business Confidence Index Q IV, 2009:

• 72% think the overall economic conditions have improved compared to one year ago.
• 78% expect the overall economic conditions will be better over the next twelve months while only about 1% is worried about a dismal economy over the upcoming year.
• Up to 59% of business expected to increase the total number of employees. Only 3% think they will cut the workforce in their companies but 38% think their company employees will remain the same over the next twelve months.
• 49% think they will keep the same investment in fixed assets over the next 12 months and 49% think they will continue to invest more. Only 3% think they will reduce investment in fixed assets over next 12 months.
• 75% are confident their company’s sales revenues will increase over the next 12 months, 24% think their company’s sales will keep the same while only about 1% worried about sales decline of them within 12 months.
• 67% of businesses believe their profits will increase in coming years. 31% of enterprises say that their profits will remain and 2% of enterprises are worried about the decline of their profits in 12 months.

In this survey, the team survey WVB VN and PVFC Invest also investigate the opinions of the enterprises on their prediction of the forthcoming economic situation in Vietnam. Thanks to the government’s stimulus program and flexible monetary policy, enterprises have been able to struggle against the negative impact of the global economic crisis. When asked to make a forecast about the market demand of their enterprises and other businesses in their industries, 76% think the market demand will continue to grow. On the contrary, 3% worry about a fall in the market demand. The enterprises who forecast about 6% to 7% GDP growth in 2010 accounts for 62% of total respondents while 22% believe that GDP growth next year will rise by 6.7% to 7.2%. In addition, 66% express their prediction of 7%-10% inflation and 23% belive that inflation will surge by  10% to 15%. The fluctuation of USD / VND rate over the next 12 months is also the hot issue that businesses are extremely concerned about. 67% speculate that VND / USD rate   will be between 18,500 to 19,000VND/USD over the coming year while only 18% predict that the rate will be ≤ 18,500VND /USD. The rest (about 14%) believe that the rate will be between 19,500 and 20,000 VND/USD.

Survey Result

WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score- QIV/2009:     135
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score- QIII/2009:     136
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score- QII/2009:      130
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score- QI/2009:         99
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score- QIV/2008:      93
WVB-PVFCI Business Confidence Index Score- QII/2008:     100

Respondent breakdown by Sector/Industry         

Respondent breakdown by ownership    

About World Vest Base:
Established in 1985 in Chicago, USA, World'Vest Base (WVB) has becomes the world’s leading global provider of financial fundamentals serving the research and analytic needs of thousands of top companies in the financial services, media and corporate markets. The WVB global database is the financial industry’s premier source of detailed and transparent financial statement data on public companies. The database universe spans over 50,000 public companies over 130 countries from Asia, Africa, Australia, Europe, Latin America and North America. WVB Regional databases also cover hundreds of thousands of private companies in Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Malaysia and Egypt. WVB also provides databases with Insider & Major Shareholders Transactions, specialized End-of-Day pricing for emerging markets and worldwide credit risk and business risk scoring.
Further information can be reached at the company’s official website: http://www.wvb.com

About PVFC Invest
PetroVietnam Finance Investment and Consultancy Company (PVFC Invest) is the subsidiary of PetroVietnam Finance Company (PVFC). Our main investment priority fields are oil and gas industry, energy, high-end tourism, real – estate, manufacturing... Besides, PVFC Invest’s professional consulting services includes: financial advisory, investment advisory, merge and acquisition. PVFC Invest is proud of 100 employees who obtain in-depth experience, full-understanding about financial market and management from working for domestic and international financial organizations or graduated from privilege universities in Viet Nam and abroad. At present, The Company has more than 500 customers spreading all over the country.
For further information, please visit website: http://www.pvfcinvest.vn

For media enquiries:
Mr. Dam Hoang Giang
WVB FISL

+84 (4) 3 762 4811

For media enquiries:
Mr. Duong Hoang Trung
PVFC Invest

+ 84 (4) 3972 6126